August 2010 Jobs Report Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher

Net Job Gains Sept 2008-August 2010On the first Fri­day of each month, the Bureau of Labor Sta­tis­tics releases Non-Farm Pay­rolls data for the month prior. 

The data is more com­monly called “the jobs report” and it’s a major fac­tor in set­ting mort­gage rates for home­own­ers every­where. Espe­cially today, con­sid­er­ing the economy.

This is because, although it’s believed that the reces­sion of 2009 is over, there’s emerg­ing talk of new reces­sion starting.

Sup­port for the argu­ment is mixed:

  1. Job growth has been slow, but planned lay­offs touch a 10-year low
  2. Con­sumer con­fi­dence is down, but beat­ing expectations
  3. Con­sumer spend­ing is weak, but not declin­ing

In other words, the econ­omy could go in either direc­tion in the lat­ter half of 2010 and the jobs mar­ket may be the key. More work­ing Amer­i­cans means more pay­checks earned, more taxes paid, and more money spent; plus, the con­fi­dence to pur­chase a “big ticket” items such as a home.

Jobs growth can pro­vide tremen­dous sup­port for hous­ing, too.

Today, though, jobs growth was “fair”. Accord­ing to the gov­ern­ment, 54,000 jobs were lost in August, but that reflects the depar­ture of 114,000 Cen­sus work­ers.  The pri­vate sec­tor (i.e. non-government jobs), by con­trast, added 67,000. 

In addi­tion, net new jobs was revised higher for June and July by a total of 123,000.  That’s a good-sized num­ber, too.

Right now, Wall Street is react­ing with enthu­si­asm, bid­ding up stocks at the expense of bonds — includ­ing mortgage-backed bonds.  This is caus­ing mort­gage rates to rise.  Rates should be higher by about 1/8 per­cent this morning.

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One Response to “August 2010 Jobs Report Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher”

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