What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 7, 2010

Mortgage rates changing quicklyLast week was a roller-coaster ride in the con­form­ing mort­gage mar­ket.  After open­ing the week by mak­ing new, all-time lows, mar­kets reversed sharply on better-than-expected data in man­u­fac­tur­ing and hous­ing, and data from overseas.

Rates rose through Wednes­day and Thurs­day, then Friday’s jobs report sent rates jumping.

Last week marked the first time that mort­gage rates wors­ened 3 days in a row since late-April.

The com­bi­na­tion of the jobs report not post­ing as poorly as pre­dicted, and light vol­ume because of Labor Day, pushed rates higher by as much as a quarter-percent in some markets.

On the week, con­form­ing mort­gage rates were unchanged but, depend­ing on when you locked, there was great dis­par­ity.  Tuesday’s rates were much bet­ter than Friday’s.

Mean­while, this week, with lit­tle data due for release, mort­gage rates should remain unpre­dictable, mov­ing as a result of momen­tum and out­side influ­ence. It makes for dan­ger­ous times for rate shop­pers.  Mort­gage rates may fall, but, then again, they might rise, too.

Keep in mind that mar­kets are in the midst of a 19-week rally and rates can’t fall for­ever. Mort­gage bonds are likely over­bought so when the sell­ing begins, pric­ing should worsen quickly.  This will cause mort­gage rates to spike.

There­fore, if you’ve been shop­ping for a mort­gage or are just won­der­ing if the time is right to refi­nance, call your loan offi­cer and work the num­bers together. Refi­nanc­ing won’t make sense for every­one, but it may make sense for you.

Mort­gage rates are still excep­tion­ally low.

 

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August 2010 Jobs Report Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher

Net Job Gains Sept 2008-August 2010On the first Fri­day of each month, the Bureau of Labor Sta­tis­tics releases Non-Farm Pay­rolls data for the month prior. 

The data is more com­monly called “the jobs report” and it’s a major fac­tor in set­ting mort­gage rates for home­own­ers every­where. Espe­cially today, con­sid­er­ing the economy.

This is because, although it’s believed that the reces­sion of 2009 is over, there’s emerg­ing talk of new reces­sion starting.

Sup­port for the argu­ment is mixed:

  1. Job growth has been slow, but planned lay­offs touch a 10-year low
  2. Con­sumer con­fi­dence is down, but beat­ing expectations
  3. Con­sumer spend­ing is weak, but not declin­ing

In other words, the econ­omy could go in either direc­tion in the lat­ter half of 2010 and the jobs mar­ket may be the key. More work­ing Amer­i­cans means more pay­checks earned, more taxes paid, and more money spent; plus, the con­fi­dence to pur­chase a “big ticket” items such as a home.

Jobs growth can pro­vide tremen­dous sup­port for hous­ing, too.

Today, though, jobs growth was “fair”. Accord­ing to the gov­ern­ment, 54,000 jobs were lost in August, but that reflects the depar­ture of 114,000 Cen­sus work­ers.  The pri­vate sec­tor (i.e. non-government jobs), by con­trast, added 67,000. 

In addi­tion, net new jobs was revised higher for June and July by a total of 123,000.  That’s a good-sized num­ber, too.

Right now, Wall Street is react­ing with enthu­si­asm, bid­ding up stocks at the expense of bonds — includ­ing mortgage-backed bonds.  This is caus­ing mort­gage rates to rise.  Rates should be higher by about 1/8 per­cent this morning.

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August’s Fed Minutes Lead Mortgage Rates Higher

FOMC August 2010 MinutesHome afford­abil­ity took a slight hit this week after the Fed­eral Reserve’s release of its August 10 meet­ing min­utes.

The “Fed Min­utes” is a lengthy, detailed recap of a Fed­eral Open Mar­ket Com­mit­tee meet­ing, not unlike the min­utes pub­lished after a cor­po­rate con­fer­ence, or condo asso­ci­a­tion gath­er­ing. The Fed­eral Reserve pub­lishes its meet­ing min­utes 3 weeks after a FOMC get-together.

The min­utes are lengthy, too.

At 6,181 words, August’s Fed Min­utes is thick with data about the econ­omy, its cur­rent threats, and its deeper strengths. The min­utes also recount the con­ver­sa­tions that, ulti­mately, shape our nation’s mon­e­tary policy.

It’s for this rea­son that mort­gage rates are ris­ing. Wall Street didn’t see much from the Fed that war­ranted otherwise.

Among the Fed’s obser­va­tions from its minutes:

  • On the econ­omy : The reces­sion was deeper than pre­vi­ously believed
  • On jobs : Pri­vate employ­ment is expand­ing slowly
  • On hous­ing : The mar­ket was “quite soft” in June

Now, none of this was con­sid­ered “news”, per se. If any­thing, investors were expect­ing for harsher words from the Fed; a bleaker out­look for the econ­omy. And, because they didn’t get it, monies moved to stocks and mort­gage bonds lost.

That caused mort­gage rates to rise.

The Fed meets 8 times annu­ally. Its next meet­ing is sched­uled for Sep­tem­ber 21, 2010.  Until then, mort­gage rates should remain low and home afford­abil­ity should remain high. There will be ups-and-downs from day-to-day, but over­all, the mar­ket is favorable.

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