Posts Tagged ‘Eurozone’

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 9, 2012

Monday, April 9th, 2012

Spain mortgage ratesIn a week of up-and-down trad­ing, mort­gage mar­kets improved for the sec­ond con­sec­u­tive week last week. Weaker-than-expected jobs data plus evi­dence of a slump­ing Euro­zone took mort­gage bonds lower, capped by a furi­ous Fri­day morn­ing rally that dropped mort­gage rates to near-record levels.

Once again, volatil­ity ruled the bond pits.

Tues­day after­noon, after the release of the Fed March Min­utes, mort­gage rates spiked. Some prod­ucts climbed as much as 0.250 per­cent. The surge stemmed from the Fed Min­utes show­ing Fed­eral Reserve mem­bers hes­i­tant to begin new rounds of mar­ket stim­u­lus with­out a demon­strated, national eco­nomic slowdown. 

Wall Street hadn’t expected the Fed’s ver­biage to be so well-defined. With lit­tle evi­dence that such a slow­down was under­way — the econ­omy has shown two straight sea­sons of con­sis­tent, steady growth, after all — equity mar­kets ral­lied and bond mar­kets sunk, caus­ing mort­gage rates to rise.

By Wednes­day, how­ever, rates had started to fall. 

Civil unrest in Spain plus con­cern that the nation will fail to meet its debt oblig­a­tions drew global investors away from equi­ties and into the rel­a­tive safety of U.S. government-backed bonds — includ­ing mortgage-backed bonds. This is a com­mon invest­ment pat­tern dur­ing times of eco­nomic uncer­tainty and one of the major rea­sons why mort­gage rates have been so low, for so long.

If the sce­nario in Spain sounds sim­i­lar to what tran­spired in Greece between mid-2010 and late-2011, that’s because it is. Mort­gage rates may ben­e­fit in the medium-term.

Also help­ing rates last week was the March jobs report.

The U.S. gov­ern­ment reported 120,000 net new jobs cre­ated in March, well short of the 200,000 fig­ure that ana­lysts expected. Mar­ket sold off sharply on the news, giv­ing rate shop­pers another chance to cap­ture low rates.

This week, with the eco­nomic cal­en­dar light, look for Europe to dic­tate mar­ket action. Mort­gage rates may move lower but there’s more room for rates to rise than to fall. Rates remain near all-time lows.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 13, 2012

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Retail Sales and mortgage ratesMort­gage mar­kets were mostly unchanged last week as Greece — once again — was front-of-mind for Wall Street investors. The nation-state is attempt­ing to avoid a debt default, and has been attempt­ing to avoid default since May 2010.

Early in the week, Greece reached a deal with Euro­pean Union lead­ers to secure addi­tional finan­cial aid. By Fri­day, how­ever, the deal was in doubt, as the EU lead­ers declared that the Greek Par­lia­ment would have pass new aus­ter­ity mea­sures before the aid would be released.

Aus­ter­ity mea­sures have been unpop­u­lar in Greece, giv­ing rise to riots among cit­i­zens and res­ig­na­tions among politi­cians. Mar­kets responded to the poten­tial undo­ing of the debt deal by seek­ing safety in bonds — includ­ing U.S. mortgage-backed bonds.

The Greek debt default story has helped fuel low mort­gage rates. Once a final deal is reached, mort­gage rates are likely to rise.

For now, though, mort­gage rates remain at all-time lows.

Accord­ing to Fred­die Mac’s weekly mort­gage rate sur­vey, the aver­age, con­form­ing 30-year fixed mort­gage rate held firm at 3.87% last week for mort­gage bor­row­ers will­ing to pay an accom­pa­ny­ing 0.8 dis­count points plus applic­a­ble clos­ing costs. 1 dis­count point is equal to one per­cent of your loan size.

For bor­row­ers unwill­ing to pay dis­count points and/or clos­ing costs, aver­age mort­gage rates are higher.

This week, data returns to the U.S. eco­nomic calendar.

Greece will still be in play, but the health of the U.S. econ­omy will deter­mine in which direc­tion mort­gage rates will go. There are two infla­tion reports due — the Con­sumer Price Index and the Pro­ducer Price Index.

The for­mer is a “cost of liv­ing” indi­ca­tor for U.S. house­holds; the lat­ter mea­sures the same for busi­ness. Infla­tion is bad for mort­gage rates so if either report comes in unex­pect­edly high, mort­gage rates are likely to rise.

The same is true for Tuesday’s Retail Sales report.

Retail Sales account for close to 70% of total U.S. eco­nomic activ­ity. An unex­pect­edly strong Retail Sales fig­ure will sug­gest that the domes­tic econ­omy is improv­ing and that, too, would pres­sure mort­gage rates up.

If you’re shop­ping for a mort­gage, or float­ing one with your lender, con­sider lock­ing in this week. Mort­gage rates don’t have much room to fall and there’s much room to rise.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 13, 2012

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Retail Sales and mortgage ratesMort­gage mar­kets were mostly unchanged last week as Greece — once again — was front-of-mind for Wall Street investors. The nation-state is attempt­ing to avoid a debt default, and has been attempt­ing to avoid default since May 2010.

Early in the week, Greece reached a deal with Euro­pean Union lead­ers to secure addi­tional finan­cial aid. By Fri­day, how­ever, the deal was in doubt, as the EU lead­ers declared that the Greek Par­lia­ment would have pass new aus­ter­ity mea­sures before the aid would be released.

Aus­ter­ity mea­sures have been unpop­u­lar in Greece, giv­ing rise to riots among cit­i­zens and res­ig­na­tions among politi­cians. Mar­kets responded to the poten­tial undo­ing of the debt deal by seek­ing safety in bonds — includ­ing U.S. mortgage-backed bonds.

The Greek debt default story has helped fuel low mort­gage rates. Once a final deal is reached, mort­gage rates are likely to rise.

For now, though, mort­gage rates remain at all-time lows.

Accord­ing to Fred­die Mac’s weekly mort­gage rate sur­vey, the aver­age, con­form­ing 30-year fixed mort­gage rate held firm at 3.87% last week for mort­gage bor­row­ers will­ing to pay an accom­pa­ny­ing 0.8 dis­count points plus applic­a­ble clos­ing costs. 1 dis­count point is equal to one per­cent of your loan size.

For bor­row­ers unwill­ing to pay dis­count points and/or clos­ing costs, aver­age mort­gage rates are higher.

This week, data returns to the U.S. eco­nomic calendar.

Greece will still be in play, but the health of the U.S. econ­omy will deter­mine in which direc­tion mort­gage rates will go. There are two infla­tion reports due — the Con­sumer Price Index and the Pro­ducer Price Index.

The for­mer is a “cost of liv­ing” indi­ca­tor for U.S. house­holds; the lat­ter mea­sures the same for busi­ness. Infla­tion is bad for mort­gage rates so if either report comes in unex­pect­edly high, mort­gage rates are likely to rise.

The same is true for Tuesday’s Retail Sales report.

Retail Sales account for close to 70% of total U.S. eco­nomic activ­ity. An unex­pect­edly strong Retail Sales fig­ure will sug­gest that the domes­tic econ­omy is improv­ing and that, too, would pres­sure mort­gage rates up.

If you’re shop­ping for a mort­gage, or float­ing one with your lender, con­sider lock­ing in this week. Mort­gage rates don’t have much room to fall and there’s much room to rise.